Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Washington Nationals Gear . It was a loss. But it was also a learning experience. Deron Williams and Joe Johnson had 24 points each to lift Brooklyn to a 94-87 win over the Raptors, making their first playoff appearance since 08. "I thought we played a little bit as expected as it is our first playoff game," Toronto coach Dwane Casey said. Cheap Nationals Jerseys . 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Tres Barrera Jersey .twitter.com/TeZD3KOvlA — Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) September 24, 2014 Sorry for the delay, we just got back from lunch at Papa Vons #NBAFastFood pic.NASHVILLE -- Ilya Bryzgalov is feeling comfortable and very welcome in the Edmonton Oilers locker room, and the 33-year-old goaltender just proved he still knows how to shut opponents down. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall scored 51 seconds apart in the second period, and Bryzgalov got a shutout in his first start for Edmonton as the Oilers beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 Thursday night. "Always like it when they dont score," Oilers coach Dallas Eakins said. "And he picked up right where he left off last game. I thought he was solid. He looked big in the net, everything. Check marks right across the page for him." Bryzgalov, signed by the Oilers on Nov. 8, made 33 saves in his first NHL start since April 25 when he was in net for Philadelphia. Jordan Eberle added an empty-netter in the final minute off an assist from Hall, and the Oilers have won four of five. "So far so good," Bryzgalov said. Predators captain Shea Weber was hit by a puck near his right eye at 15:24 of the second, dropped to the ice and immediately skated to the locker room. He did not return with what team officials called an upper-body injury and is day-to-day. Nashville, which had won two straight, lost for the second time in seven games. Predators coach Barry Trotz noted they have used four goaltenders themselves this season. "The guys are going to bear down and play hard for the new guy thats in net," Trotz said. "The new guy for them is Bryzgalov, and we talked before the game that we needed to get in the hard areas and throw some pucks. He hasnt played for a while. He may be a little rusty. The game might not be tight. .. But obviously we didnt play hard enough in those hard areas." The Predators hosted one of the NHLs two games and were the only American team in action Thursday, wanting to start a holiday tradition in Nashville pairing hockey with turkey. It was just their 11th home game this season, fewer than all but Dallas and the Rangers. Nashville outshot Edmonton 13-9 in a sluggish first period with the Predators playing the second game of a back-to-back after winningg 4-0 in Columbus on Wednesday night.dddddddddddd This is the Oilers only visit to Nashville this season and the start of a three-game road trip. Eakins said he thought both teams were checking hard, which can lead to a dull or sluggish game. "But when youre coaching and you need your team to get better defensively, thats a ray of bright light coming in when the game looks sluggish but your teams checking very well," Eakins said. The Oilers opened the second by taking the first five shots, and Predators forward Paul Gaustad and Oilers left wing David Perron each went to the penalty box for unsportsmanlike conduct at 5:07. Nugent-Hopkins tipped in a shot by Jeff Petry 25 seconds later during the 4-on-4, and Hall scored on a backhander from Sam Gagner at 6:23 for a 2-0 lead. "Were a fast, skilled team," Nugent-Hopkins said. "We have to take opportunities when we get them. Four-on-four is a situation that when we play our game, we can get a couple goals." Bryzgalov, who signed a one-year deal with the Oilers for $1.7 million, debuted Monday in Edmonton, replacing Devan Dubnyk in a 5-1 loss to Chicago. Bryzgalov stopped four shots from Weber in the first period, but Weber had only one shot in the second before the puck hit him in the face. "Obviously if we lose our captain, its always hard and we hope hes OK and hopefully he gets back soon," Predators defenceman Roman Josi said. Bryzgalov had a nice pad save on Predators forward Mike Fisher in the final minutes to finish off his 31st career shutout and second against the Predators. NOTES: The Oilers are 4-5-2 when scoring first. Nashville dropped to 2-10-0 when the opponent scores first. ... Bryzgalov improved to 10-6-3 against the Predators. ... The Oilers are 5-1-0 when leading after two periods, and Nashville is 0-11-0 when trailing after two. ... Nugent-Hopkins has seven points in the last four games. ... It was Nashvilles fourth game on Thanksgiving and first since 2007. The Predators won the first three on their own ice. ... Nashville is 2-2-0 in the second of back-to-back games this season. ' ' '